This is drifting off topic, but that's what threads like this are for.
I honestly don't believe that HD-video formats of any kind are going to become "standard" until they get so dirt cheap that it would be stupid for anyone to have plain DVDs anymore. When DVD came to replace VHS, it offered a more stable picture with cleaner encoding, vast subtitle and dubbing support, as well as extras like commentary, missing scenes, making-of pieces and more. HD formats only bring sharper picture, and far fewer people are going to care about that. How many times have you watched a movie and said "boy, this would sure look good at 1080i!". For now, Blu-ray and HD-DVD alike are going to be strictly for the videophiles and wealthy among us. Only internal issues will make one a winner anytime soon.
If Sony is depending on their Blu-ray to give them a ride into the next generation of success, I believe they will be in for big problems. I kind of hope that's the case, too. Their attitude toward their work and their consumers makes me hope that they will not be leading things forever.